Economic Scenarios and Development Patterns in the Baltimore‐Washington Region
Authors: Nikhil Kaza, Gerrit Knaap, and Kelly Clifton (2009)
Report
Synopsis: This paper illustrates the use of scenarios in land use, environmental and transportation planning in and around the State of Maryland. Different assumptions about futures result in different patterns of growth with differential impacts on particular sectors of the economy. Such different patterns require formulation of contingent plans as well as robust plans. In this paper, we illustrate the quantitative modelling methodology of loosely linked economic demographic, transportation and other impact assessment models in constructing two scenarios; one of which represented the best possible guess about the continuation of the future and other involving rapid changes to energy prices and Federal spending. We illustrate the spatial development outcomes and the transportation and environmental plans that are necessary to deal with these different outcomes. Further, we illustrate that different planned actions have different efficacies in different futures and thus multiple futures should be carefully considered. Finally, we illustrate the notions of contingent plans and robust plans.
Authors: Kelly J. Clifton, Gary Davies, William G. Allen, and Noah Radford (2004)
Report
Synopsis: Pedestrian safety is emerging as a major area of concern for MPO's and planning agencies. Typically, pedestrian safety has been analyzed by either examining the absolute number of pedestrian crashes at a location, or computing an exposure rate from the number of crashes and the traffic volume. A more desirable measure would be an exposure rate based on the pedestrian volume, but it has not proven feasible to obtain pedestrian flow volumes on a widearea basis to support this analysis. This report describes a pedestrian flow modeling process that was developed under the sponsorship of the Maryland DOT and the University of Maryland National Center for Smart Growth. The process provides micro-scale daily pedestrian flows on all sidewalks and crosswalks in a substantial coverage area. Two test cases were analyzed: an urban scenario comprising about 10 square miles of downtown Baltimore, and a suburban scenario comprising about 15 square miles of Langley Park in Prince Georges and Montgomery Counties.
Authors: Feng Zhang, Kelly J. Clifton, Qing Shen (2005)
Report
Synopsis: This paper presents an empirical examination of the relationship between information and communications technology (ICT) and travel. The primary research objective is to examine the effects of several indicators of ICT usage on three measures of travel outcomes. The ICT indicators include the frequency of Internet use, the number of mobile phones, and the presence of a telephone at home for business purposes. The travel outcomes examined are vehicle miles traveled (VMT), total daily trips, and daily walking trips. Using the 2001 national household travel survey (NHTS) data for Baltimore metropolitan area, a linear regression model is estimated for VMT and two Poisson regression models are estimated for, respectively, total daily trips and daily walking trips. The empirical results suggest simultaneous existence of substitution and complementarity interactions between ICT and travel, with complementarity as the dominant form. Implications of the research findings are discussed.
Authors: Nikhil Kaza, Gerrit Knaap, and Kelly Clifton (2009)
Report
Synopsis: This paper illustrates the use of scenarios in land use, environmental and transportation planning in and around the State of Maryland. Different assumptions about futures result in different patterns of growth with differential impacts on particular sectors of the economy. Such different patterns require formulation of contingent plans as well as robust plans. In this paper, we illustrate the quantitative modelling methodology of loosely linked economic demographic, transportation and other impact assessment models in constructing two scenarios; one of which represented the best possible guess about the continuation of the future and other involving rapid changes to energy prices and Federal spending. We illustrate the spatial development outcomes and the transportation and environmental plans that are necessary to deal with these different outcomes. Further, we illustrate that different planned actions have different efficacies in different futures and thus multiple futures should be carefully considered. Finally, we illustrate the notions of contingent plans and robust plans.
Pedestrian Flow Modeling for Prototypical Maryland Cities
Authors: Kelly J. Clifton, Gary Davies, William G. Allen, and Noah Radford (2004)
Report
Synopsis: Pedestrian safety is emerging as a major area of concern for MPO's and planning agencies. Typically, pedestrian safety has been analyzed by either examining the absolute number of pedestrian crashes at a location, or computing an exposure rate from the number of crashes and the traffic volume. A more desirable measure would be an exposure rate based on the pedestrian volume, but it has not proven feasible to obtain pedestrian flow volumes on a widearea basis to support this analysis. This report describes a pedestrian flow modeling process that was developed under the sponsorship of the Maryland DOT and the University of Maryland National Center for Smart Growth. The process provides micro-scale daily pedestrian flows on all sidewalks and crosswalks in a substantial coverage area. Two test cases were analyzed: an urban scenario comprising about 10 square miles of downtown Baltimore, and a suburban scenario comprising about 15 square miles of Langley Park in Prince Georges and Montgomery Counties.
Reexamining ICT Impact on Travel Using the 2001 NHTS Data for Baltimore Metropolitan Area
Authors: Feng Zhang, Kelly J. Clifton, Qing Shen (2005)
Report
Synopsis: This paper presents an empirical examination of the relationship between information and communications technology (ICT) and travel. The primary research objective is to examine the effects of several indicators of ICT usage on three measures of travel outcomes. The ICT indicators include the frequency of Internet use, the number of mobile phones, and the presence of a telephone at home for business purposes. The travel outcomes examined are vehicle miles traveled (VMT), total daily trips, and daily walking trips. Using the 2001 national household travel survey (NHTS) data for Baltimore metropolitan area, a linear regression model is estimated for VMT and two Poisson regression models are estimated for, respectively, total daily trips and daily walking trips. The empirical results suggest simultaneous existence of substitution and complementarity interactions between ICT and travel, with complementarity as the dominant form. Implications of the research findings are discussed.